Modeling the behavior of German tourists towards long-haul destinations in times of crisis: the example of South Africa

Project description

Against the backdrop of multiple crises in Europe (COVID-19, war in Ukraine, climate change, inflation), there is much discussion about the resulting adjustments in travel behavior. Long-distance destinations such as South Africa in particular appear to be becoming less attractive for German travelers as a result. Using South Africa as an example, this study aims to investigate the interaction of psychological aspects in the perception of Germans on travel desires and the intention to travel to South Africa. The theoretical background is provided by the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen 1991) and its extension within the framework of the model of goal-oriented behavior (Perugini & Bagozzi, 2001), according to which five core components (expected positive and negative emotions, attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control) shape the desire to perform a certain behavior and the behavioral intentions of an individual. In the case of subjective norms, for example, we examine what the individual’s environment would think of the planned behavior (in this case, a trip to South Africa). The component of behavioral control (e.g. perceived safety, cost control, control over the sustainability of the trip) is also particularly relevant in the current times of crisis. According to the model of goal-oriented behavior, the frequency of behavior in the past (e.g. visiting long-haul destinations) also determines desires and behavioral intentions. The simultaneous analysis of the influences of intrinsic and extrinsic travel motives is also intended to derive conclusions for tourism practice (e.g. which target groups are easily approachable for a long-haul destination such as South Africa in Germany, even in times of crisis). Selected results of the study will be made available here in the first quarter of 2023. In addition, the results will be published together with the cooperation partners from South Africa in the form of scientific articles.