With the Vacation Planning Index (UPI), the German Institute for Tourism Research (FH Westküste University of Applied Sciences) and the Deutscher Tourismusverband (DTV) are presenting, for the first time, an indicator of Germans’ short-term vacation travel intentions. The results of the first report show that higher jet fuel and gasoline prices are having little effect on travel plans for the summer of 2026.
The overall UPI score for the summer of 2026 is 106 points. The index is based on a reference value of 100 for the fall of 2025, when the UPI was first calculated. Demand for international travel is rising particularly sharply (UPI International: 111), while travel intentions within Germany are also slightly above the baseline (UPI Domestic: 101).
The vacation rate is also high this summer: 62 percent of Germans intend to take at least one vacation trip in the next three months. 42 percent are planning a trip within Germany, and 40 percent are planning a trip abroad. As a result, demand for domestic vacations remains high even during the peak travel season.
The Vacation Planning Index was first compiled in the fall of 2025. This point in time, with a reference value of 100, serves as the baseline for the index’s future development. Since the UPI measures travel intentions for the next three months, no comparative figures are available for the summer of 2026.
“Together with the DTV, we are developing the UPI, a tool that measures Germans’ short-term vacation travel intentions. Aligned with the seasons, the UPI shows four times a year how many vacation trips Germans intend to take in the next three months. Starting with an indexed reference value of 100 for vacation travel intentions for fall 2025, a UPI value of 106 can be determined for summer 2026. As expected, demand for overseas vacations will increase significantly in the summer compared to other seasons. Overall, however, the number of domestic vacations still outweighs overseas travel even in the summer. In particular, demand for destinations in coastal and low-mountain regions is even higher than in other seasons. And most recently: For 87 percent of respondents, the increased prices for jet fuel and gasoline have no impact on their short-term vacation travel plans for the summer of 2026. “This underscores the high priority Germans place on summer vacations,” says Bernd Eisenstein, Director of the German Institute for Tourism Research.
Despite rising kerosene and fuel prices, major changes to vacation plans remain the exception. Of the 13 percent of respondents who have adjusted their travel plans, most are changing only specific aspects of their trip. The most common adjustments involve the destination or the number of planned trips. Only 2 percent say they intend to cancel their vacation entirely.
“The results show that Germany’s tourist regions can continue to count on strong demand. Especially in times of economic uncertainty, this is an important signal for cities, municipalities, and local businesses. However, the high willingness to travel should not obscure the fact that Germany’s tourism industry cannot rest on its laurels despite these favorable conditions. To ensure that destinations can maintain their appeal in the long term, reliable investments in infrastructure, mobility, and tourism offerings are needed. The competitiveness of tourism in Germany depends not least on the framework conditions created by the federal government, the states, and local municipalities,” says Reinhard Meyer, President of the Deutscher Tourismusverband.
The Vacation Planning Index (UPI) is a joint research project of the German Institute for Tourism Research at the FH Westküste University of Applied Sciences and the Deutscher Tourismusverband. It is based on representative surveys of the German-speaking resident population and is published four times a year.
